# Will off-plan properties make up at least 75% of Dubai's residential sale records in December 2026?

> As of 4 November 2026, Prolepsia puts the chance of yes at 9%.

- Forecaster: Prolepsia (https://prolepsia.com)
- Forecast made: 2026-11-04
- Question type: Yes / no
- Resolves: 2027-01-20
- Status: Open
- Forecasts: 1
- Page: https://prolepsia.com/forecasts/eclipse-halo-kappa/will-off-plan-properties-make-up-at-least-75-of-dubai-s-residential-sale-records
- Open in the app: https://app.prolepsia.com/library/3ae1a8ee-f77f-492b-aaa3-aa39da0e79d3

## Forecast

- Yes: 9%
- No: 91%

## How Prolepsia reasons

## TL;DR
The saved forecast is **9.5% probability of Yes and 90.5% probability of No**. Treat No as the planning case: the latest completed-month residential comparisons sit well below the 75.0% threshold. The decisive issue is a reversal in the mix of registrations, not a recovery in total property sales.

## Context
The question concerns the number of eligible residential sale records dated in December 2026. Yes requires at least 75.0% to carry DLD’s Off-Plan Properties registration classification. The denominator includes qualifying single apartments and villas, but excludes land, whole buildings, multi-property records, mortgages and gifts. The outcome uses the data as published on 20 January 2027, rather than later revisions ([DLD](https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/open-data/real-estate-data/)).

The market entered the forecast period with weaker activity and a softer off-plan mix. Cavendish Maxwell reported 33,900 third-quarter residential transactions, down 38.6% year on year. Savills put the quarter’s off-plan share at 72% and described relatively stronger ready-market activity and reduced launches. The October residential comparisons then moved materially lower ([Cavendish Maxwell](https://ae.linkedin.com/company/cavendish-maxwell); [Savills](https://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/uae/dubai/savills-me--dubai-residential-mim-report-q3-2026---v5.pdf)).

## Evidence
The historical backbone is Direct Deal’s full January–October residential series. It shows that a share above the threshold was achievable earlier in the year. It also shows why that earlier frequency is a weak guide to December: the high-share period ended in June, followed by four consecutive monthly declines ([Direct Deal](https://directdealuae.com/dubai-off-plan-market-report)).

| 2026 month | Total records | Off-plan records | Ready records | Off-plan share |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| January | 14,634 | 10,692 | 3,942 | 73.06% |
| February | 14,271 | 10,127 | 4,144 | 70.96% |
| March | 11,705 | 9,092 | 2,613 | 77.68% |
| April | 12,007 | 9,488 | 2,519 | 79.02% |
| May | 8,844 | 6,763 | 2,081 | 76.47% |
| June | 12,116 | 9,517 | 2,599 | 78.55% |
| July | 12,362 | 9,176 | 3,186 | 74.23% |
| August | 10,455 | 7,685 | 2,770 | 73.51% |
| September | 9,409 | 6,703 | 2,706 | 71.24% |
| October | 9,504 | 6,219 | 3,285 | 65.44% |

These are comparable publisher counts, not certified counts under every resolution filter. Four of the ten months exceeded 75%, but none of July–October did. October’s unrounded share was 65.4356%, down from 71.2403% in September. Total records rose slightly between those two months, while off-plan records fell and ready records rose. The deterioration was therefore about composition, not merely fewer transactions ([Direct Deal](https://directdealuae.com/dubai-off-plan-market-report)).

The distance to the threshold is substantial. Starting from October’s counts, the off-plan-to-ready ratio must increase by 58.47% to reach 75%. If ready registrations stayed at 3,285, off-plan registrations would need to reach 9,855, against 6,219 in October. These are arithmetic illustrations, not forecasts of December volumes. They show why a modest recovery is insufficient ([Direct Deal](https://directdealuae.com/dubai-off-plan-market-report)).

Other residential calculations support the direction. YAFF reported 10,439 October residential transactions with a 66% off-plan share. Projectory reported 6,393 off-plan records among 9,999 October sales, or 63.9364%. The populations differ: Projectory includes some villas filed as land when matched to villa inventory, whereas the question excludes land. These publishers largely analyse the same DLD register, so their agreement corroborates a weak October mix without creating independent samples ([YAFF](https://yaff.properties/en/prices); [Projectory](https://projectory.ae/research/dubai-property-market-october-2026-dld-home-sales-report/)).

Classification is a central limitation. Direct Deal includes hotel accommodation while excluding some developer-registration and lease-to-own procedures. Those choices can change both numerator and denominator. DLD separately identifies registration type, usage and property type, which is why a residential headline or an analyst’s “off-plan” label cannot automatically substitute for the target statistic ([Direct Deal](https://directdealuae.com/dubai-off-plan-market-report); [DLD](https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/open-data/real-estate-data/)).

Historical December reports illustrate the problem. Property Monitor’s December 2025 report recorded 13,039 Oqood transactions among 18,575 sales, approximately 70.2%, but published an adjusted off-plan share of 73.3%. The adjustment adds unfinished villas and townhouses registered through title deeds. That adjusted figure does not answer this question. Hamptons’ residential-only December 2025 report instead counted 13,076 off-plan and 4,520 ready transactions, or 74.3123%. These are different populations and classifications, not interchangeable estimates of one exact share ([Property Monitor](https://propertymonitor.com/insights/monthly-market-report/monthly-market-report-december-2025); [Hamptons](https://hamptons.ae/market_reports/December_Market_Report_2025.pdf)).

The operating environment also weighs against assuming a rapid reversal. Savills described stronger ready-market activity, fewer launches and greater use of payment incentives. It also noted that registrations increasingly reflected earlier launches and existing inventory. I read this as support for persistence in the softer mix, while recognising that incentives can help move unsold stock ([Savills](https://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/uae/dubai/savills-me--dubai-residential-mim-report-q3-2026---v5.pdf)).

A narrower measure of activity gives a similar signal. Home Pulse compared 1–30 September with 1–30 October in a filtered residential off-plan-unit sample. Registrations fell from 6,499 to 5,645. Outside each month’s five busiest project names, they fell from 5,427 to 4,849. The leading-five share declined from 16.5% to 14.1%, but that was not evidence that activity elsewhere was growing. This sample excludes villas and applies price and area filters, so it supports direction rather than an exact level ([Home Pulse](https://homepulse.ae/blog/dubai-market-pulse-october-2026-off-plan-sales-concentration)).

There are credible routes to a December rebound. Peak Trust reported 23 October project registrations containing 8,077 homes. DLD also announced its new Initial Registration platform on 3 September 2026, including automated document extraction and approval of qualifying registrations. Capacity and faster processing can affect timing, but neither establishes how many eligible off-plan sales will be dated in December ([Peak Trust](https://peaktrust.ae/insights/off-plan-monitor/2026-10); [DLD announcement](https://dubailand.gov.ae/ar/news-media/dubai-land-department-launches-initial-registration-a-smarter-journey-for-developers-and-greater-efficiency-for-the-real-estate-sector/)).

## What's non-obvious
**A falling market does not automatically produce a falling off-plan share.** The share can rise even while total sales fall, provided ready registrations fall faster. The reverse also holds: a recovery in overall sales can leave the off-plan share below the threshold. October’s combination of fewer off-plan records and more ready records makes the denominator as important as the developer pipeline ([Direct Deal](https://directdealuae.com/dubai-off-plan-market-report)).

Launch headlines are also a poor shortcut. Cavendish Maxwell reported that only 17% of initial off-plan sales in January–September 2026 involved projects launched that year. Older inventory can therefore sustain registrations even when launches slow, while new launches need not generate immediate records. The information that matters most is the timing and classification of actual registrations, not announced capacity alone ([Cavendish Maxwell](https://ae.linkedin.com/company/cavendish-maxwell)).

## Uncertainties
The largest measurement gap is the exact eligible denominator. An exact-resolution October count remains unverified. Hotel accommodation, villa classification, developer procedures, lease-to-own records and multi-property exclusions all require consistent treatment. The net effect is not established, so the publisher comparisons should not be treated as a precise bound on the eventual outcome ([DLD](https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/open-data/real-estate-data/)).

The largest market uncertainty is registration timing. Sales within a development can be registered together. A large December batch, especially alongside weaker ready sales, can shift the monthly share sharply. Thousands of records do not eliminate this uncertainty because they need not represent independent buying or administrative decisions.

The seasonal evidence is also thin. There is no verified exact-definition historical December series establishing a reliable year-end uplift. An exact-filter November count, a documented December registration backlog and a clean reconciliation of publisher eligibility rules would close the most important gaps. Revisions through 20 January 2027 remain relevant. These uncertainties explain the remaining chance of Yes; they do not change the saved forecast.

## Forecast history

| Date | Forecast |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 9% chance of yes |

## Sources Prolepsia read

- [https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/open-data/real-estate-data/](https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/open-data/real-estate-data)
- [https://ae.linkedin.com/company/cavendish-maxwell](https://ae.linkedin.com/company/cavendish-maxwell)
- [https://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/uae/dubai/savills-me--dubai-residential-mim-report-q3-2026---v5.pdf](https://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/uae/dubai/savills-me--dubai-residential-mim-report-q3-2026---v5.pdf)
- [https://directdealuae.com/dubai-off-plan-market-report](https://directdealuae.com/dubai-off-plan-market-report)
- [https://yaff.properties/en/prices](https://yaff.properties/en/prices)
- [Dubai Property Market October 2026: Home Sales Report](https://projectory.ae/research/dubai-property-market-october-2026-dld-home-sales-report)
- [Monthly Market Report December 2025 - Property Monitor](https://propertymonitor.com/insights/monthly-market-report/monthly-market-report-december-2025)
- [https://hamptons.ae/market_reports/December_Market_Report_2025.pdf](https://hamptons.ae/market_reports/December_Market_Report_2025.pdf)
- [https://homepulse.ae/blog/dubai-market-pulse-october-2026-off-plan-sales-concentration](https://homepulse.ae/blog/dubai-market-pulse-october-2026-off-plan-sales-concentration)
- [https://peaktrust.ae/insights/off-plan-monitor/2026-10](https://peaktrust.ae/insights/off-plan-monitor/2026-10)

## The question

The off-plan casino. Buyers of off-plan homes pay in instalments for homes that are not yet built, so their share shows how speculative the market is. Dubai's property market slowed through 2026. Cavendish Maxwell counted about 33,900 residential sales in the third quarter, down about 38% on a year earlier, and its average price per square foot fell 2.2% year on year in September, the first annual fall since the post-pandemic recovery. Off-plan homes made up about 72% of sales in that quarter.

### How it resolves

Resolves Yes if, among residential sale records dated in December 2026, those whose registration type is Off-Plan Properties are at least 75.0% of the count. Otherwise resolves No. The share is counted by number of records, not value. A residential sale record is a DLD transaction in the Sales group (procedures such as Sell, Sell - Pre registration and Delayed Sell) whose property usage is Residential and whose property is a single unit (apartment) or a villa. Land, buildings, mortgages, gifts and any record that covers more than one property are left out.

### Fine print

Source: Dubai Land Department (DLD) open data, Real Estate Data, at https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/open-data/real-estate-data/ (the same records Dubai Pulse publishes). A month means the calendar month in Dubai time, and a record's date is its transaction or registration date in DLD's data. The question uses the data as DLD publishes it on 20 January 2027; later revisions do not count. Records with a missing or zero price, rent or area are left out of medians and price thresholds. If DLD's open data is unavailable on that date, the figures may come from a service that republishes DLD records month by month (DXBinteract or Property Monitor). If neither is available, the question is annulled.

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Prolepsia’s forecasting engine made this forecast: it researched the question, weighed the evidence and wrote the report on this page. A probability is not a promise; this one changes as the evidence does.