# Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?

> As of 4 November 2026, Prolepsia puts the chance of yes at 36%.

- Forecaster: Prolepsia (https://prolepsia.com)
- Forecast made: 2026-11-04
- Question type: Yes / no
- Resolves: 2026-12-01
- Status: Open
- Forecasts: 1
- Page: https://prolepsia.com/forecasts/momentum-nebula-eclipse/will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-high-105-in-november
- Open in the app: https://app.prolepsia.com/library/77d234fd-6e42-4e38-8f92-9bf53a00db94

## Forecast

- Yes: 36%
- No: 64%

## How Prolepsia reasons

## TL;DR
The saved forecast is **36% probability of Yes and 64% probability of No**. No is the more likely outcome because the latest December-futures proxy is $94.40 per barrel, leaving an 11.2288% climb to $105, while January trades lower. The central risk to No is a short, sharp supply-driven rally: this market requires a qualifying touch, not a sustained price above $105.

## Context
The event concerns the ICE Futures Europe WTI active-month contract as published in final Pyth one-minute candles. A qualifying high must reach at least $105 during an eligible November trading session after market creation, without rounding. NYMEX futures, physical WTI spot and Brent are not the resolving instruments. The specified series is available through the [Pyth CLL chart](https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL), and eligibility follows [ICE trading hours](https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures).

As of November 4, 2026, available proxies show prices below the threshold. The latest December and January five-minute closes were $94.40 and $93.37. Their labels imply observations around 13:20–13:25 UTC if interpreted as New York time. These observations establish the current economic distance to the barrier, but not the exact resolving-feed price or its earlier maximum.

## Evidence
The historical backbone is the frequency of large upside moves over a comparable trading window. Daily NYMEX proxy observations covering January 4, 2010–November 3, 2026 show that such moves are uncommon across all conditions, but more frequent when volatility is elevated. The following figures describe historical touches over the next 19 sessions, not probabilities for this market.

| Historical reference class | Eligible overlapping windows | Touch of +9% | Touch of +10% | Touch of +11% |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| All eligible history | 4,164 | 30.6% | 26% | 22% |
| Trailing annualized volatility of 35–70% | 1,360 | 41.5% | 35.4% | 30.8% |
| Starts during 2026 | 192 | 72% | 70% | 68% |

The volatility-conditioned history is more relevant than the unconditional average. The exceptionally high 2026 rates are less reliable: the windows overlap, the year contains few independent episodes, and earlier upward-price conditions differ from the current post-selloff position. Historical frequencies also use a continuous NYMEX proxy whose contract changes differ from the market’s ICE rule. They are context, not a direct answer.

The supplied price history shows both the capacity for sharp rallies and the recent retreat. These are selected observed highs, not a complete daily series:

| Session | NYMEX proxy high, dollars per barrel |
|---|---:|
| September 15 | 106.75 |
| September 16 | 105.63 |
| October 20 | 110.48 |
| October 30 | 104.99 |
| November 2 | 102.75 |
| November 3 | 98.82 |
| November 4, early partial session | 97.15 |

The earlier highs establish that the price regime has allowed moves above $105. They do not satisfy this market’s November requirement. The October 30 and November 2–3 highs are also reported in the supplied [historical-price evidence](https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data?hl=en-US). A separate November 4 snapshot showed $97.11 rather than $97.15, so the partial-session maximum is not fully reconciled across vendors. Neither value establishes a touch.

The latest starting level is a meaningful obstacle. The supplied settlement history was $104.12 on October 30, $96.46 on November 2 and $96.09 on November 3. Earlier November 4 observations included $95.56 at 01:57 GMT and $96.59 at 05:10 GMT. ([Contemporaneous reporting](https://95kqds.com/2026/11/03/oil-edges-down-as-investors-await-us-midterm-election-results/)) A subsequent completed five-minute proxy bar was $95.16, followed by the latest $94.40 observation. This leaves $105 11.2288% above the latest December price. The recent decline matters because a fixed threshold becomes harder to reach as the starting price falls.

The active-contract change adds another hurdle. ICE lists December expiry on November 19, making January active at the opening of the November 17 session under the question’s final-three-session rule. The normal opening is November 16 at 8 p.m. ET, equivalent to November 17 at 01:00 UTC. ([ICE expiry calendar](https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry))

The supplied December-minus-January spread narrowed from $1.91 on October 30 to $1.66 on November 2 and $1.32 on November 3. The November 3 settlements were $96.09 and $94.77. ([CME bulletin](https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section61_Energy_Futures_Products.pdf)) The latest observations, $94.40 and $93.37, imply a smaller 1.0911% January discount. Narrowing helps, but January remains cheaper. If that relationship persists, changing the active contract lowers the quoted level relative to the fixed $105 barrier. It does not mean either contract must fall.

Volatility supplies the main counterweight. The available OVX history is 58.48 on October 30, 62.69 on November 2 and 61.69 on November 3. The official FRED redistribution corroborates the November 2 observation; the newer November 3 reading comes from the supplied vendor observations. OVX measures volatility implied by USO options, not the exact ICE contract or the probability of a $105 touch. ([OVX series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OVXCLS))

Recent realized-volatility estimates are lower but still elevated. A fixed-December series gives 40.0484% annualized volatility over 21 returns. Continuous-front-month calculations give 45.57% over 21 returns and 46.7408% over 20 returns. These differ in window and contract treatment. The inference is consistent: large moves remain credible, but the higher options-implied reading should not be treated as a direct event probability.

Physical supply evidence also resists a simple bearish reading. Official commercial crude stocks fell from 427.320 million barrels on September 25 to 410.625 million on October 23, a decline of 16.695 million barrels. ([EIA inventories](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm)) The subsequent industry estimate indicated a 5.27-million-barrel draw for the week ended October 30, against an expected 0.88-million-barrel build. Reported distillate stocks fell 1.19 million barrels while gasoline rose 1.43 million. These were industry estimates, not official confirmation. ([Inventory reporting](https://95kqds.com/2026/11/03/oil-edges-down-as-investors-await-us-midterm-election-results/))

The geopolitical evidence is mixed. EIA’s October outlook estimated September Middle Eastern production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day and projected approximately 4.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, alongside a 0.7-million-barrel-per-day global inventory draw. These are dated estimates and projections, not verified November flows. The same outlook forecast fourth-quarter average WTI spot at $97 and Brent at $105—different benchmarks and a different statistic from a brief futures touch. ([EIA October outlook](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/Oct26.pdf))

Qatar’s November 3 statement confirmed continuing proposal exchanges without announcing a breakthrough. ([Official statement](https://mofa.gov.qa/en/qatar/latest-articles/latest-news/details/2026/11/03/advisor-to-prime-minister--official-spokesperson-for-ministry-of-foreign-affairs--qatar-continues-its-efforts-to-bridge-gap-between-washington--tehran)) Reporting also described military action alongside diplomacy. That combination supports two-sided price risk rather than a clean assumption of restored supply. ([AP reporting](https://apnews.com/article/b4519ef86bafe2672e0855d7a48ce309))

## What's non-obvious
**A falling oil price does not establish that supply risk has disappeared.** Prices retreated while implied volatility remained high, official inventories were declining, and the industry inventory estimate surprised toward a draw. I read this as a market reducing its geopolitical premium while still paying for protection against another disruption. That leaves room for a brief upward reversal even without a sustained bullish trend.

The contract switch is also easy to miss. A generic WTI chart can suggest one uninterrupted path toward $105, but this market changes the contract used for resolution. January’s discount makes a later touch harder than a December-only reading suggests. The discount has narrowed, which softens that obstacle, but does not offset the lower latest starting price. These opposing changes support a below-even forecast without treating Yes as remote.

## Uncertainties
The largest verification gap is the exact Pyth one-minute history. Available proxy highs support the view that no qualifying touch has occurred, but cannot conclusively exclude a feed-specific spike. Official ICE fallback highs also remain unverified. The market-creation timestamp was not supplied. Finalized Pyth candles covering eligible sessions after creation would close the most consequential gap.

The latest proxy timestamps require interpretation, and NYMEX prices need not match ICE/Pyth exactly. Synchronized contract-specific observations would improve the starting-price comparison. The actual December–January spread at the switch also remains unknown; today’s discount is not a promise about the future.

Future supply developments dominate the economic uncertainty. A diplomatic agreement followed by restored exports would support No. Renewed damage to production or export routes would threaten it. Current, verified shipping-flow data and official confirmation of the inventory surprise would help distinguish those paths. Holiday trading-hour changes also limit which price spikes qualify. These uncertainties leave the saved forecast unchanged: 36% probability of Yes and 64% probability of No.

## Forecast history

| Date | Forecast |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 36% chance of yes |

## Sources Prolepsia read

- [Pyth CLL chart](https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL)
- [ICE trading hours](https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures)
- [https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data?hl=en-US](https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data?hl=en-US)
- [https://95kqds.com/2026/11/03/oil-edges-down-as-investors-await-us-midterm-election-results/](https://95kqds.com/2026/11/03/oil-edges-down-as-investors-await-us-midterm-election-results)
- [CME bulletin](https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section61_Energy_Futures_Products.pdf)
- [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OVXCLS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OVXCLS)
- [https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm)
- [https://mofa.gov.qa/en/qatar/latest-articles/latest-news/details/2026/11/03/advisor-to-prime-minister--official-spokesperson-for-ministry-of-foreign-affairs--qatar-continues-its-efforts-to-bridge-gap-between-washington--tehran](https://mofa.gov.qa/en/qatar/latest-articles/latest-news/details/2026/11/03/advisor-to-prime-minister--official-spokesperson-for-ministry-of-foreign-affairs--qatar-continues-its-efforts-to-bridge-gap-between-washington--tehran)
- [https://apnews.com/article/b4519ef86bafe2672e0855d7a48ce309](https://apnews.com/article/b4519ef86bafe2672e0855d7a48ce309)
- [https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/oil-edges-up-after-report-of-us-strike-on-iran-s-qeshm-island-ce785fd9dc8df323](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/oil-edges-up-after-report-of-us-strike-on-iran-s-qeshm-island-ce785fd9dc8df323)

## The question

Imported from Polymarket.
This yes/no question comes from a single Polymarket market.

### How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of November 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours).

The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month.

Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry.

For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar.

If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected).

In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

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Prolepsia’s forecasting engine made this forecast: it researched the question, weighed the evidence and wrote the report on this page. A probability is not a promise; this one changes as the evidence does.