What Prolepsia does
Teams use Prolepsia for decisions that depend on things nobody knows yet: a price next quarter, a rule that may change, a supplier that may miss a date. You describe the decision and what matters, and Prolepsia researches the uncertainties behind it. Each answer is a probability or a forecast range, with the reasons and the sources it read.
You record the choice yourself, with the condition that tells you when to look at it again. Prolepsia keeps the forecasts current as the evidence changes. It does not make the choice and does not carry it out.
What Prolepsia publishes
Prolepsia forecasts real questions in public. Each public forecast shows the probability, the date it was made, the report explaining it, the sources it read and every earlier forecast on the same question. Resolved questions stay online with their outcomes, and the track record scores them.
Prolepsia Research writes up what the team finds while forecasting: the evidence that mattered, the evidence that did not, and how the forecasts compared with what happened.
How the forecasts are made and checked
The methodology page explains how a forecast is made, from the research to the final probability. Once an outcome is established, a forecast can be scored with the Brier score and log loss, and the track record states what it covers and what it leaves out.
Contact
Write to contact@prolepsia.com, or use the contact form on the support page. The terms of service give the legal details of the service, including who operates it.