Forecasts

Run a forecast

Pick a run mode, start a forecast and follow it while it researches.

Steps

  1. Open the question in the Library.
  2. Open the run mode picker next to Run forecast, and slide to the run mode you want. The picker shows the price in credits and your balance.
  3. Choose Run forecast.
  4. Follow the live page. It shows each stage, what the forecast is doing now and the sources it has read.
  5. When it says Your forecast is ready, choose Open forecast.

Run modes

A deeper run mode takes longer and costs more credits. The run mode picker shows the price for your organization.

Run modeTimeWhat it does
LightAbout 5 minutesA quick first look with small models and no extra research.
ModerateAbout 9 minutesA fuller run with some expert research.
StandardAbout 28 minutesThe full forecast, with expert research and code analysis.
DeepAbout 38 minutesStronger models and more research for a hard question.
MaxAbout 1.5 hoursThe strongest models and the most research we can run.

Good to know

  • Choosing a run mode spends nothing. Your organization pays when the forecast starts, and a forecast that fails gives its credits back.
  • You do not need to keep the page open. Prolepsia emails you when the forecast is ready.
  • The button next to the run mode opens the forecast setup: the preset, Read Prolepsia records and one switch for each connection. On a question you created, each change saves on the question at once. The question's forecasts, automatic reruns included, use the same choices.